BASICS OF INVESTING

Broken global financial system needs redesigning


IF world leaders -- business, political and civil society -- expected the Magic Mountain in Switzerland to provide answers for a quick fix to the global economic meltdown, they were sadly mistaken. Instead, there was much "gloom and doom" among those who made it up to the snow-capped mountains of Davos. Jeroen van der Veer, chief executive of Royal Dutch Shell, added to the economic chill by stating that "the behaviour of companies accelerates the crisis. But we don't really have a choice because we have to do what is best for the company".

He was referring to layoffs, and cautioned against expecting solutions to work immediately. "Don't think you'll have a package today and things will immediately get back to normal," he said. "It will take time."

One thing was clear: the parties were decidedly subdued, many political leaders stayed away, and the CEOs, high-flyers of previous years, were humbled and very low-key. They had no idea how bad the situation would get.

Analysts lamented that "we haven't even seen the corner, we don't know where the corner is".

There was a lot of soul-searching and not much lecturing by the developed nations now in the grip of the worst economic downturn since World War 2.

Two years ago, Nouriel Roubini of New York University warned that a "hard landing" was being obscured by "record profits and bonuses". In February 2007, he said "the party will soon be over".

Now he warns that "worse lies ahead" and "banks face bigger credit losses than they realise, more financial companies will require state takeovers and the world economy will keep shrinking throughout 2009".

According to Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley in Asia: "We are in a global recession, the likes of which we have never seen. But there is no quick fix."

He added that "we are now moving into the ugliest phase of every crisis, the blame game".

And even as the blame game continues, what is urgent now is to draw up and implement solutions.

But there were no new suggestions from those gathered in Davos. The statement that this is a global crisis calling for a global solution was heard again and again.

Montek S. Ahluwalia, deputy chairman of India's Planning Commission, said a movement towards global, rather than national solutions, is needed.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown added that cooperation between major powers and global financial institutions is vital to ensure a continued flow of credit to developing and smaller countries, which are likely to be the biggest victims of the recession.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel suggested the setting up of an United Nations Economic Council similar to the UN Security Council. She said that economic principles needed to be enshrined in "a new charter for a global economic order".

Forget about a global solution. Even the EU leaders themselves, after calling for a coordinated approach, are pursuing their own individual policies.

Since the beginning of the year, Germany has launched a new economic recovery plan. Britain unveiled a fresh rescue package for its banking sector and a number of countries are putting together plans to help their auto companies.

And the fact remains, as Thailand's Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva pointed out, that "we live in a global economy, but we only have national authority". And that makes a global, coordinated approach that much more difficult.

There were other suggestions for moving forward. Among them that the old laissez faire does not work and there is an urgent need to find new solutions; public servants should not be running banks; and "excessive dependence on what is basically the only reserve currency is dangerous for the world economy".

There was also agreement that existing multilateral institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank have proven inadequate in the face of the current crisis.

Their management does not reflect the changed world environment, and they do not have the financial power.

Ahluwalia pointed out that while national governments are spending hundreds of billions on stimulus packages, the IMF has only US$250 billion (RM900 billion) on hand, and has to ask for another US$250 billion.

In the long term, multilateral institutions will need to become more inclusive.

The existing system is stuck in the immediate post-world-war period, where the victors dictated the terms. And they still continue to hold on to the multilateral institutions. There is an urgent need for the global institutions to be more inclusive.

The focus now shifts to the G-20, scheduled to meet in London in April. But whether the G-20 will be effective is yet to be seen.

The bottom line is that the world is currently experiencing a paradigm shift, and a way must be found to open up and redesign th

...this is missing some symmetry and I could probably crop it some to improve it, but I like it as is. Cropping would make the picture shorter and less imposing.

This is the Goldman Sachs building in Jersey City. It is right across the Hudson River from the NYC financial district. Goldman - the most prominent Investment bank - hoped to move all its people in the area here, but many protested the move from midtown.

Taken somewhat randomly through the sunroof with a polarizar and high saturation. Having the sun behind me helped as well.

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